The Kalousek Factor
Milos Zeman and his bogeyman
Throughout the night, Milos Zeman’s billboards were being refashioned for the second round. This morning, we woke up to find, alongside Zeman’s rubicund grin, the words:
‘STOP Kalouskovi na Hradě!’
How predictable! Zeman is now attacking Karel Schwarzenberg’s most serious handicap, his partnership with Miroslav Kalousek.
How predictable –and yet how misleading. Of course, Kalousek is the ideal bogeyman. But in this case, the attempt by Zeman to frighten people into voting for him next weekend by playing upon the widespread loathing of Kalousek, should not be taken seriously. It is based upon the erroneous assumption that Kalousek will benefit if Schwarzenberg to become president.
This is not necessarily the case.
In the short term, Kalousek may benefit from his party chairman moving into the castle. But not for long. Far from being improved, the electoral chances of TOP 09 -and therefore Kalousek's power- will be much undermined if Schwarzenberg becomes president. It is in the interests of TOP 09 that their chairman remains, and therefore that he lose the presidential race.
But what is TOP 09? It is very far from being a broad-based political party with a mass membership. If the municipal mayors were to leave, the party’s centrally-controlled apparatus would be talking to itself. I have the impression that it is people that are mobilising behind Karel, not TOP 09, and certainly not Kalousek and his loyalist brothers-in-arms.
TOP 09 is precariously unbalanced, even top-heavy. Its appeal is built upon the popular perception of a tandem between its two leaders –a kindly and sublime nobleman complementing a Machiavellian rogue. Without the balance that Schwarzenberg and Kalousek each provide the other, the party would topple over.
Kalousek has power but Schwarzenberg has 'people power', an ability to inspire. As I have said elsewhere, there is only one effective antidote to the poisonous Kalousek among TOP 09’s electorate, and that is Schwarzenberg. Leos Heger is not an antidote to Kalousek.
If TOP 09 would have to fight the next general elections without Schwarzenberg, it will be trounced.
This would not matter much to Schwarzenberg nor to many of his supporters. He will be settled in the castle by then, above the noise and nuisance of party politics. Nor would it matter to Zeman, as president, that TOP 09 would certainly perform better in the next elections under Schwarzenberg’s continued leadership.
Like Vaclav Klaus, Zeman stands, above all, for himself. And like Klaus, he most certainly sees himself as superior to the political party that he did such so much to build, and which later renounced him.
The only top politician that will suffer if TOP 09 is thrashed in 2015 is Miroslav Kalousek. Without a political party behind him, his power will evaporate.
The mighty do fall. Topolanek became the spokesman of the local heating association. Kalousek could become an economic advisor to the Vatican -although he might have to abandon his proposal to replace the cash he promised the church with non-tradable government bonds -his latest attempt to make himself indispensable.
Reducing Kalousek is one of the more important reasons why forward-looking ODS and CSSD voters will vote for Schwarzenberg next weekend. It will improve the chances of their own parties, damaging TOP 09 and undermining Miroslav Kalousek.
The truth is that neither presidential candidate could care less whether Kalousek survives at the top of Czech politics for another ten years or not. Both want to become president, and will use Kalousek to achieve their ambition –either as bogeyman or as accomplice.
But once this ambition is achieved, President Zeman’s bogeyman is just as likely to become an accomplice in his scheming against CSSD; and President Schwarzenberg's accomplice is just as likely to become a burden to be abandoned at the earliest opportunity. This Prince will outlive his Machiavelli.
Patient readers of this page will know that there is little love lost between Kalousek and myself. The finance minister has threatened to sue me for criminal libel. You may believe me when I tell you that I would never knowingly help Miroslav Kalousek gain more power.
If we want to see Kalousek weakened, as most of us surely do, we should support Schwarzenberg, not because we approve of his politics or even of his family but because he is the only one with the means truly to reduce Miroslav Kalousek to a condition of powerlessness –just as he was the only one able to restore him to power four years ago.
Schwarzenberg has a proven ability to mobilise the power of the people, in 2010 on behalf of Kalousek, and today on behalf of himself.
What the prince has given, the prince may take away.
foto denik.cz
Throughout the night, Milos Zeman’s billboards were being refashioned for the second round. This morning, we woke up to find, alongside Zeman’s rubicund grin, the words:
‘STOP Kalouskovi na Hradě!’
How predictable! Zeman is now attacking Karel Schwarzenberg’s most serious handicap, his partnership with Miroslav Kalousek.
How predictable –and yet how misleading. Of course, Kalousek is the ideal bogeyman. But in this case, the attempt by Zeman to frighten people into voting for him next weekend by playing upon the widespread loathing of Kalousek, should not be taken seriously. It is based upon the erroneous assumption that Kalousek will benefit if Schwarzenberg to become president.
This is not necessarily the case.
In the short term, Kalousek may benefit from his party chairman moving into the castle. But not for long. Far from being improved, the electoral chances of TOP 09 -and therefore Kalousek's power- will be much undermined if Schwarzenberg becomes president. It is in the interests of TOP 09 that their chairman remains, and therefore that he lose the presidential race.
But what is TOP 09? It is very far from being a broad-based political party with a mass membership. If the municipal mayors were to leave, the party’s centrally-controlled apparatus would be talking to itself. I have the impression that it is people that are mobilising behind Karel, not TOP 09, and certainly not Kalousek and his loyalist brothers-in-arms.
TOP 09 is precariously unbalanced, even top-heavy. Its appeal is built upon the popular perception of a tandem between its two leaders –a kindly and sublime nobleman complementing a Machiavellian rogue. Without the balance that Schwarzenberg and Kalousek each provide the other, the party would topple over.
Kalousek has power but Schwarzenberg has 'people power', an ability to inspire. As I have said elsewhere, there is only one effective antidote to the poisonous Kalousek among TOP 09’s electorate, and that is Schwarzenberg. Leos Heger is not an antidote to Kalousek.
If TOP 09 would have to fight the next general elections without Schwarzenberg, it will be trounced.
This would not matter much to Schwarzenberg nor to many of his supporters. He will be settled in the castle by then, above the noise and nuisance of party politics. Nor would it matter to Zeman, as president, that TOP 09 would certainly perform better in the next elections under Schwarzenberg’s continued leadership.
Like Vaclav Klaus, Zeman stands, above all, for himself. And like Klaus, he most certainly sees himself as superior to the political party that he did such so much to build, and which later renounced him.
The only top politician that will suffer if TOP 09 is thrashed in 2015 is Miroslav Kalousek. Without a political party behind him, his power will evaporate.
The mighty do fall. Topolanek became the spokesman of the local heating association. Kalousek could become an economic advisor to the Vatican -although he might have to abandon his proposal to replace the cash he promised the church with non-tradable government bonds -his latest attempt to make himself indispensable.
Reducing Kalousek is one of the more important reasons why forward-looking ODS and CSSD voters will vote for Schwarzenberg next weekend. It will improve the chances of their own parties, damaging TOP 09 and undermining Miroslav Kalousek.
The truth is that neither presidential candidate could care less whether Kalousek survives at the top of Czech politics for another ten years or not. Both want to become president, and will use Kalousek to achieve their ambition –either as bogeyman or as accomplice.
But once this ambition is achieved, President Zeman’s bogeyman is just as likely to become an accomplice in his scheming against CSSD; and President Schwarzenberg's accomplice is just as likely to become a burden to be abandoned at the earliest opportunity. This Prince will outlive his Machiavelli.
Patient readers of this page will know that there is little love lost between Kalousek and myself. The finance minister has threatened to sue me for criminal libel. You may believe me when I tell you that I would never knowingly help Miroslav Kalousek gain more power.
If we want to see Kalousek weakened, as most of us surely do, we should support Schwarzenberg, not because we approve of his politics or even of his family but because he is the only one with the means truly to reduce Miroslav Kalousek to a condition of powerlessness –just as he was the only one able to restore him to power four years ago.
Schwarzenberg has a proven ability to mobilise the power of the people, in 2010 on behalf of Kalousek, and today on behalf of himself.
What the prince has given, the prince may take away.